Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will advance to a runoff election against former Brazilian president and ex-convict Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on October 30 in a runoff election.
Prior to the election, Bolsonaro and his party repeatedly warned that the election might not be secure – Brazil exclusively uses electronic voting machines made by Smartmatic with no option for paper voting – and now many believe the first round of voting prove election integrity watchdogs correct.
Some voters published videos that appear to show Brazil’s voting machines refusing to accept Bolsonaro votes, while others questioned how Bolsonaro held a lead until late in the evening, when Lula suddenly gained several percentage points. Days prior to the election, Joe Biden lectured Brazilians and demanded they have a “free, fair” election.
Regardless of the alleged fraud, neither Bolsonaro or Lula managed to achieve 50% of the vote. Bolsonaro received 44% of the vote to Lula’s 47%, a far cry from the 36% polls predicted the incumbent to receive compared to Lula’s predicted 50%.

President Jair Bolsonaro visits President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in August of 2020 (Jair Bolsonaro / Flickr)
Now, as all other conservative challengers have been eliminated from the running, many expect the man referred to as either the “Brazilian Trump” or “Trump of the Tropics” to achieve victory in the October 30 runoff.
In social media posts written in Portuguese and translated into English, Bolsonaro thanked his supporters and boasted that he did better in this month’s first round of voting than in his previous election.
“Against all odds and against everyone, we had a bigger win in the 1st round of 2022 than we had in 2018 – almost 2 million more votes,” wrote Bolsonaro on Facebook. “We also elected the largest House and Senate caucuses, which was our top priority,” he added.
“A lot of people got discouraged by the lies spread by pollsters, who completely failed in this election. They got all their predictions wrong and are the biggest losers of this election.” He charged, “We beat their lies and now we’re going to win the runoff election Oct. 30!”
– Elegemos governadores no 1° turno em 8 estados e elegeremos nossos aliados em outros 8 estados neste 2° turno. Esta é a maior vitória dos patriotas na história do Brasil: 60% do território brasileiro será governado por quem defende nossos valores e luta por um país mais livre.
— Jair M. Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@jairbolsonaro) October 3, 2022
Lula, who formerly served as President of Brazil, was once convicted of corruption before having his conviction vacated by the country’s Supreme Court.
The 76-year-old socialist, who recently appeared to forget his thought mid-debate earlier this year, promised “peace and love” to his supporters if they elect him on October 30. He also promised that his administration would attract foreign investors by being good “stewards” of the Amazon rainforest.
Trump, whose informal political alliance with Bolsonaro formed shortly after when the Brazilian politician won his election in 2018, has repeatedly endorsed the man.
“To the people of Brazil, you have a great opportunity to reelect a fantastic leader, a fantastic man, one of the great presidents of any country in the world, President Bolsonaro,” said Trump in a video Bolsonaro posted to Twitter.
“He’s done an absolutely incredible job,” Trump said. “He’s respected by everybody all throughout the world, so I strongly endorse President Bolsonaro.”
– Obrigado, meu amigo Trump! Graças ao apoio do povo brasileiro e de nossa determinação em lutar pelos interesses do Brasil, hoje somos respeitados no mundo todo e contamos com o apoio de nações livres e prósperas e não mais de ditaduras socialistas, como no passado. pic.twitter.com/p4gcAcSiIU
— Jair M. Bolsonaro 2️⃣2️⃣ (@jairbolsonaro) October 2, 2022
Trump excitedly reported Brazil’s election results last night, saying he believes the Brazilian president’s strong performance in the first round of voting will secure a victory later this month.
“Congratulations to President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro on greatly ‘outperforming’ inaccurate early Fake News Media polls & getting into a two person runoff, to take place October 30th, with a Radical Left challenger,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“Now that other Conservatives are out of the race, President Bolsonaro is in a very strong position to win BIG. More importantly, he will be victorious because the wonderful people of Brazil appreciate the great job he has done, and is doing.” He added, perhaps crediting the timing of his video message, “Tremendous Voter Surge over last 24 hours!”
